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A publication of Mecox Bay Research

Twice this century, the market has fallen by half.

For investors protecting a lifetime of savings: one published rule for when to own the market and when to wait in cash.

An Absolute Return Strategy • Rules-Based • Sector-Level
See How the Rule Works Quick Pick · Sector Monitor

General market commentary and educational content only. Not personalised investment advice. Not registered as an investment adviser.

11 S&P 500 Sector ETFs
200-Day Moving Average Signal
Rules Published & Never Changed
Same-Day Signal Alerts

How it works

“Equal weighting decides how to spread risk. The 200-day rule decides whether to take the risk at all.”

01 · Equal weight

All 11 sectors, 9.09% each. No sector quietly becomes the whole portfolio.
02 · The 200-day rule

Own a sector in an uptrend. Step to cash, earning T-bill interest, when the trend breaks.

The record

Five years at a time.

The strategy's total return for each five-year stretch since 2000, plus the 2026 year-to-date bar
Same rules, five-year totals. Click to enlarge.

The record

Absolute return, year by year.

The strategy's return for every calendar year from 2000 through 2026 year-to-date, with the whole-period average of about 6% a year
Every year of the published rules since 2000, judged on its own terms. Click to enlarge.

The record

This year, day by day.

One strip per sector for 2026, green where the strategy owned the sector and grey where it stood in cash, with a dot at every position change
Green where the strategy owned a sector, grey where it stood in cash. 30 position changes so far, and 3 sectors that never moved at all. See the full record →

The evidence

Tested against every major crash since 1929.

2008
Market −55%
Strategy −15%
2000
Market −48%
Strategy −21%
1929
Market −84%
Strategy −26%
How the strategy protected capital in the 2008 financial crisis, XLF sold July 2007, in cash for two years, bought back July 2009
2008, one sector up close: out in July 2007, back in for the recovery. Seven crashes, seven studies →

The Sector Monitor: 8 of 11 sectors invested.

As of the close, July 31, 2026.

XLK XLF XLV XLY XLI XLP XLE XLU XLB XLRE XLC

This is the product: the full signal table every Friday, and a same-day alert whenever a position changes. →

Who stands behind it

Michele runs the business. John runs the numbers.

Meet Michele & John →

One plan, everything included, $35 a month once payments go live and free during pre-launch.

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